We are back with the NBA Player Props Forecast after a wild couple of weeks in the Association. Last week I broke down the impact of players who joined new teams.
This week we’ll look at a Western Conference contender in turmoil and four of the worst teams in the league to find some value on player props.
Let’s dive right into this week’s player props betting forecast.
NBA Player Props Betting Forecast
The most important news of the week in the NBA has been Ja Morant. He will miss at least two games after a social media post surfaced where he brandished what appeared to be a firearm. While the league has not taken action yet, there could be further punishment for Morant.
He isn’t the only player the Grizzlies who will be missing moving forward. The Grizzlies announced that Brandon Clarke will miss the rest of the season after suffering a torn left Achilles.
This leaves their frontcourt perilously thin with Steven Adams, who has been out since Jan. 22, still sidelined without a definite timetable for his return. This should open up minutes for a combination of Xavier Tillman, John Konchar, and Santi Aldama with Tillman being the biggest beneficiary.
Let’s break down Morant’s absence first. While Dillon Brooks (one game suspension) missed Sunday’s loss to the Clippers, he will return for Tuesday’s game. This likely moves David Roddy out of the starting lineup.
Tyus Jones has been the biggest beneficiary whenever Morant has missed time in the past. In 10 games without Morant, Jones has averaged 33.5 minutes, 19.4 points, 3.5 rebounds, 8.1 assists, and 2.7 steals. He’s been a tremendous fill-in point guard over the past two seasons. He has exceeded 20 points in six of those 10 games, with double-doubles in four of them as well.
On Sunday night against the Clippers, his props were set at 13.5 points, 7.5 assists, with a double-double listed at +470. I’d expect those to climb after his 25-point, 12-assist double-double; however, there is likely still value on both props against a Los Angeles Lakers team that plays at a top three Pace in the league on Tuesday night. I prefer his points line if it’s below 16.5.
As for the frontcourt, Tillman started alongside Jaren Jackson Jr and each played 34 minutes. This is fairly standard for Jackson but a significant uptick for Tillman. In the two games Tillman has played without both Adams and Clarke this season, he has logged 33 and 34 minutes compared to the 24.1 he averaged without Adams but with Clarke. He should see an uptick in not only scoring but rebounds as well. Neither Konchar nor Aldama have seen a significant change in their roles or minutes without Clarke this season.
This injury dramatically impacts the Grizzlies’ postseason prospects. Clarke was one of their most versatile bigs that could be used in myriad of matchups. I do not have any Grizzlies’ exposure in the futures market, but I certainly would not be looking to add to it now.
A few teams are clearly in tank more: Charlotte Hornets, Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets, and San Antonio Spurs. When betting on these teams it is important to consider that the minutes for their best players will be a bit unpredictable and their rotations even moreso.
On Sunday, the Spurs ruled out nearly half of their roster before a showdown with the Rockets. Eleven Spurs played and no one topped 29 minutes. This is a situation to avoid if you are an over bettor; however, unders make sense with the Spurs delving deep into their bench to give players minutes.
The Rockets did something similar on Sunday. Although they did not rule out any players, they also gave 11 players minutes and only Kevin Porter Jr. played more than 30 minutes (31).
One player to watch is rookie Tari Eason. He has now logged 29, 31, 25, 31, and 28 minutes over his last five games while averaging 15.8 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 1.8 assists over this stretch. His props were set at 11.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 1.5 assists (+145). I’d look to play his points prop moving forward.
The Pistons have had a lengthy injury report the last few games, but Marvin Bagley, James Wiseman, and Jaden Ivey have been central to the team’s production over the past four games. Bagley is averaging 17.5 points and 13 rebounds, Wiseman is averaging 10.8 points and 8.8 rebounds, and Ivey is averaging 15.8 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 4.5 assists over this stretch.
I’d expect Detroit to continue leaning on these three, especially in a soft frontcourt matchup against the Blazers who remain without Jusuf Nurkic on Monday. I’d look to play Bagley at over 15 points and 8.5 rebounds, or even dabble with his Points + Rebound line and double double.
The Hornets have now lost LaMelo Ball for the season with a broken ankle and the team is miserable. They do not have much young talent and still are playing their veterans over 30 minutes per game.
I do not see much value on this team on a nightly basis; however, their defense has surprisingly been the second-best over the last two weeks allowing just 106.5 points per 100 possessions. Additionally, their Pace has cratered — down to 100.25 compared to 103.4 from Dec. 29 to Feb. 27, the dates LaMelo was active this season.
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