In Week 11, our top NFL survivor pool option came through, as the San Francisco 49ers topped the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by a 27-14 score.
49ers QB Brock Purdy turned in a perfect passer rating of 158.3, the 1st San Francisco signal-caller since Joe Montana accomplished the feat in 1989. That’s it. That’s the club in San Francisco. Purdy also was the 1st Niners signal-caller since Steve Young to throw for consecutive games with 300 yards at home.
Despite the big afternoon, it was just 13-7 at halftime. But the Niners pulled away for a rather comfortable afternoon for survivor players.
The No. 2 option was more of an adventure, and it was shocking. The Miami Dolphins closed as 13.5-point favorites, tied for the highest faves on the board. The Las Vegas Raiders fired out to a 10-7 lead after the 1st quarter, and the Dolphins led just 14-13 at half. Miami never got separation, posting just 6 points in the 3rd quarter for the only scoring in the 2nd half. It ended up winning 20-13, but it was a close shave.
We’ve lost our No. 1 option 3 times — and would even be eliminated from pools that allow up to 3 defeats — but we’re still here to help going forward.
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The chalk: Kansas City Chiefs
Who they play: Road vs. Raiders – 4:25 p.m. (CBS)
The Chiefs (7-3) are going to be an angry bunch after falling 21-17 in the rain at Arrowhead on Monday Night Football in a marquee matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles in a Super Bowl rematch.
The Raiders (5-6) put a scare into us as the No. 2 option last week, as they put up a tremendous fight in South Florida against the high-flying Dolphins. It’s even riskier to pick against them at home.
Or is it?
The Chiefs have won 5 consecutive meetings in this series, including by 18 points in last season’s visit to Vegas. Prior to that, the Chiefs won 41-14 at Allegiant Stadium on Nov. 14, 2021. Kansas City has won 9 of the past 10 meetings in this series, too.
It’s normally not a great idea to pick a road team, especially one coming off a loss at home. It’s also a short week for the Chiefs after playing Monday night. However, we haven’t chosen the Chiefs to this point, and they are still playing a team with a rookie quarterback and an interim coach. As such, KANSAS CITY IS MY TOP WEEK 12 SURVIVOR POOL PICK.
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No. 2 option: Tennessee Titans
Who they play: Home vs. Panthers – 1 p.m. (FOX)
The Titans (3-7) play for just the 4th time at Nissan Stadium this season, and Tennessee is home for the 1st game since Week 8 against the Atlanta Falcons.
Tennessee is a perfect 3-0 on its home field while also covering every game for good measure. We simply need the Titans to just win at home, and it should do just that against the struggling Panthers (1-9).
Carolina has lost all 5 of its games on the road this season, and it has lost 4 of those outings by 10 points or more. The average margin of defeat for the Panthers on the road this season is 13.2 points per game (PPG).
We haven’t used the Titans, and at 3-7, there haven’t been a ton of reasons to back them. But fading the Panthers has been a great key to advancing in survivor pools this season. It has worked 9 times out of 10.
Others to consider
Miami Dolphins: Road vs. New York Jets – 3 p.m. (Fri. – Prime Video)
Minnesota Vikings: Home vs. Chicago Bears – 8:15 p.m. (Mon. – ESPN)
2023 survivor game log
NO. 1 OPTION
Week 1: WIN – Ravens 25, Texans 9
Week 2: WIN – Cowboys 30, Jets 10
Week 3: WIN – Dolphins 70, Broncos 20
Week 4: LOSS – Titans 27, Bengals 3
Week 5: WIN – Lions 42, Panthers 24
Week 6: WIN – Rams 26, Cardinals 9
Week 7: WIN – Seahawks 20, Cardinals 10
Week 8: WIN – Eagles 38, Commanders 31
Week 9: LOSS – Vikings 31, Falcons 28
Week 10: LOSS – Broncos 24, Bills 22
Week 11: WIN – 49ers 27, Buccaneers 14
NO. 2 OPTION
Week 1: WIN: Commanders 20, Cardinals 16
Week 2: WIN – Bills 38, Raiders 10
Week 3: WIN – Chiefs 41, Bears 10
Week 4: WIN – 49ers 35, Cardinals 16
Week 5: LOSS – Steelers 17, Ravens 10
Week 6: WIN – Bills 14, Giants 9
Week 7: LOSS – Giants 14, Commanders 7
Week 8: WIN – Chargers 30, Bears 13
Week 9: WIN – Saints 24, Bears 17
Week 10: WIN – Cowboys 49, Giants 17
Week 11: WIN – Dolphins 20, Raiders 13
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